50/50 Chance for the Cathedral of Notre Dame in Paris

After the death of my husband on January 16, 2019, the saddest thing that happened this year was the fire at Notre Dame de Paris on April 15, 2019. Seeing that beloved cathedral in flames and thinking of all the times he and I went there--especially the first time when we walked across Pont au Double from our Latin Quarter hotel--to tour Notre Dame, to pray in Notre Dame, to attend Mass in Notre Dame, was heart-breaking.

The news published this past week that the Cathedral realistically has a 50/50 chance of surviving because of the dangerous weight of the scaffolding was another heartbreak:

This year Christmas Mass was not celebrated at Notre Dame de Paris for the first time since the French First Republic, and the cathedral’s rector says that there is a significant chance the building cannot be rebuilt safely.

The church “is not out of danger,” Monsignor Patrick Chauvet said to the Associated Press Dec. 24. “It will be out of danger when we take out the remaining scaffolding.”

The scaffolding, which was present on the building prior to the April 15 fire due to restoration work, fused together during the blaze. There are an estimated 551 tons of metal still present on top of the cathedral.

“Today we can say that there is maybe a 50% chance (the cathedral) will be saved,” said Chauvet. “There is also (a) 50% chance of scaffolding falling onto the three vaults, so as you can see, the building is still very fragile,” he added.

This video from inside the Cathedral recently released shows the huge gap in the roof and the extraordinary puzzle of the scaffolding above. When you look up now, you don't see the glories of the Gothic height. Outside, the flying buttresses have been buttressed by wooden structures.

We humans are so used indeed of thinking that we can bend all matter to our will, make anything happen, but the thought that the Cathedral of Notre Dame de Paris could have survived the French Revolution, two World Wars, and even the growing secularization and laicite of 20th and 21st century French and may not survive a fire caused by a stray cigarette or electrical short is stunning.